Is it useful to do trading with technical analysis
Preface: the technical school East forex cashback the basic school argued for nearly a century, but no one has been able to conv cashbackforexbtcce each other in the United States Wall Street, perhaps 90% of analysts identify themselves as basic analys forexcashbackcalculator school but in China, perhaps 90% of analysts love to use technical charts to measure the Eastforexcashback Why is there such a big difference between the counterparts on both sides of the Pacific? Is a technical chart an investment guide or a fancy one? I believe cashback forex the only way to truly understand technical analysis is to personally contact the most authoritative practitioners in this field Heres a look at the worlds top technical analysis masters their trading secrets Technical Analysis Founding Fathers: Charles • Dao Dao was born in 1851 and worked at least 20 jobs before entering the world of journalism, apparently he hadnt had much The companys main business is the dissemination of news and analysis of capital market news thereafter, Dao did two major things, making it the founding father of technical analysis one is Dao in July 30, 1884, the first stock market average price index, to the original stock index in 1897 before Derived from the Dow & bull; Jones Industrial Index and the Dow & bull; Jones Railway Index, the Dow is still the most authoritative data to test the stock market trends Second, he created the Dow Theory 1885 Dow & bull; Jones & Co. to its original "noon newsletters" renamed the "Wall Street Journal", this newspaper was later known as the Bible of the rich Dow in the "Wall Street Journal" editor-in-chief of the 13 years, the published a series of editorials, expressing his research on the behavior of the stock market until 1903, a year after his death, these articles were collected into the book "Common Sense Stock Market Speculation" by Nelson, it was in this book for the first time used the reference to Dows theory in the preface to the book, Richard & bull; Russell put Dows contribution to the theory of the stock market with Freuds influence on psychiatry Later Hamilton published a book "stock market barometer", the Dow theory systematized and carried forward the basic principles of the Dow theory is: (1) the average price embraces all factors digested (2) the stock market has three types of trends primary trends, secondary trends and short-term trends Dow used the tides of the sea, waves and ripples in turn to compare these three trends (3) the various average prices must verify each other ( (4) volume must verify the trend (5) only after the occurrence of a conclusive reversal signal, we can determine that an established trend has ended someone did a statistical analysis, from 1920 to 1975, Dow theory successfully revealed the Dow & bull; Jones Index 68% of all large swings, as well as the Standard & Poors 500 stock index 67% of the large swings Dow heir Hamilton On October 21, 1929, in an editorial entitled Turning Tide, predicted that the great bull market of the 1920s was near death October 25, Wall Street stock market boom and bust, the beginning of a big bear market stretching 3 years from 386 points to 41 points plummeted 89% said over, in fact, Hamilton from January 1927 (200 points or so) on a big short-selling, thus missing a surge of about 1 times the big As in the spirit of the design of most trend-following systems, Dow Theory aims to capture the middle section of the market with the greatest amplitude in important movements, but even so, it can not escape the censure of seeking the fullest, the most common criticism is that the signal comes too late. The analysis of the three stages of the main trend is relatively crude, but for any new thing and new theory can not be faulted technical wizardry: William & bull; Jahn Jahn is the most amazing technical analysis of the master, but also the first half of the 20th century, the great speculator Clarence & bull; Corwin wrote the preface to Jahns book said: He is the only one I think and Thomas & bull; Mr. Edison as great as the same person Like Edison, he was a deeply religious Christian, claiming to have discovered the cyclical cycle of the market in the Bible Jahn believed that God created the world in seven days, so seven represents the meaning of perfection The Bible says that from Abraham to Christ Jesus went through three 14 generations, which is a multiple of seven, so Jahn especially valued the role of seven in the cyclical cycle. Venn used his knowledge of astronomy, mathematics and geometry to create a unique theory of technical analysis, including the law of volatility, the theory of cycles, Venns angular lines, Venns quadrilateral, Venns hexagon, etc. Venn firmly believed that there are natural laws of the universe in the stock market, and that the way stock prices move is not haphazard, but predictable. He also believed that time is the most important factor in determining market movements, that history does repeat itself, and that if you know the past, you can predict the future, as the Bible says: there is nothing new under the sun. In Jahns theory, the time cycle is the first, followed by the proportional relationship, and then the pattern Jahn is the most diligent researcher of technical theory. He started trading in 1902 at the age of 24, and like everyone else, Jahn had lost thousands of dollars, but he soon came to his senses, studied very hard, and studied extremely hard. No wonder the media touted that this type of performance in the financial markets called the forefront of the history of Venns annual stock market forecast published in January 1929 wrote: September will occur in the years largest downtrend investor confidence will be a major blow, the general public will not be able to get out in time …… through a ‘ Black Friday Friday’, there will be a panic decline in stocks, with only a small rebound thus he accurately predicted the 1929 U.S. stock market crash, by 1932, people were willing to pay $1,500 to buy the self-study course materials he edited, or spend $5,000 to attend a special seminar on price and time, when the $5,000 contract today 400,000 Hong Kong dollars! Many books have documented that during his 53-year speculative career, Jahn made a huge fortune of $50 million but J•A•Hyerczyk wrote in his book "Ganns Theory" that because Jahn was a first-rate salesman, he only emphasized his success in his various writings The figure of $50 million is obviously grossly overestimated According to brokerage reports, his In addition, his will filed in Miami shows that his wealth was far less than $50 million. Two observations about Jahns deeds: 1. ] sub〖HT9.5,9.75SS〗 exhibition and other trading leverage, with 25% compound interest appreciation each year, then the money earned in 53 years is $68.42 million It is said that Jahn set a new record for trading leverage and accuracy, and avoided the great bear market in 19291932, coupled with the size of his assets under management is not very large, it is reasonable to say that the money he earned in the speculative market should be much larger than this number to be reasonable The history of our stock market only 11 years, there have been a number of investors whose assets have grown by hundreds or even thousands of times, although most of them have not yet experienced the baptism of the great bear market, can not be said to have really made the money in hand, but for the time being, the growth multiplier has been put here but no matter how, Jahn in the experience of the largest economic crisis in the last century and the two world wars, but still make so much money and preserve the war. The most important thing is that it is not great, but it can also be said to be invaluable to look at the writings of Jahn about the great speculators in history, and his contemporaries, many of the great speculators have earned tens of millions of dollars in profits in a not too long period of time, and then spit back to the market, the vast majority of people are bankrupt and impoverished 2, since Jahn measured the market is accurate and magical, why do you attach great importance to risk control? In his later years, he disclosed the twenty-four rules of constant success: (1) never use more than one tenth of the money in a transaction (2) with a stop-loss order (3) never overtrade, and so on gives the impression that Jahn is very conservative and cautious, very focused on risk control, which is very unlike his style in his youth perhaps Jahn himself had suffered greatly in credit trading, perhaps he through other big speculators He said at the age of 72: the profit that can be expected to be set at 25% compounded annually is more appropriate, that if a person operates steadily and does not crave windfall profits, then it is still easy to accumulate a fortune over a period of time, regardless of Venns evaluation of his market measurement No matter how high-profile Jahns evaluation of his market measurement system was, he was very low-profile when he developed his own operating system, which is perhaps where Jahns brilliance came from. Perhaps after witnessing the majority and crash of the U.S. stock market around 1929, he chose 75 years of Wall Street stock market data as the object of study. In 1946, two years before his death, he completed his masterpiece on wave theory, "The Laws of Nature: The Secrets of the Universe", which combines philosophy, numerology and the occult and reveals the natural laws of stock price fluctuations. He believed that the stock market follows a cyclical rhythm and that the complete bull cycle consists of 8 waves, starting with 5 waves up and followed by 3 waves down The numerical basis of wave theory is the Fibonacci series, i.e. 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc., to infinity Wave theory has three important aspects form, proportion and time, the importance of which in the above order was discussed in the last issue, in Gann Elliott believes that wave theory is a very necessary complement to Dow theory, and John & Bull; Murphy points out that most of Elliotts theory fits perfectly with Dow theory and traditional charting techniques. However, Elliotts wave theory goes one step further and provides a comprehensive perspective on the workings of the market, while Dow Theorys reversal signal must wait until the new trend is confirmed, Wave Theory can warn of upcoming tops and bottoms in advance. In 1972, the American Investors Association seminar commented that: there is a genius named Elliott, he discovered ‘ wave theory ’ some people think that after this statement should be added: this theory can only be understood by geniuses because Elliotts theory is complex and esoteric, for a long time is not widely known 1978, the contemporary wave theory master Berchert and others proudly launched the book "Elliott wave theory", and in 1984 for a period of In 1984, the three-month national investment competition, Burchett won the championship with a profit rate of 444.4%, thus making the wave theory spread rapidly wave theory looks perfect, it is very difficult to use, difficult in how to distinguish or define the different levels of the wave in addition, auxiliary technical indicators exist in the phenomenon of dysfunctional blunt, the wave will also appear to extend and then extend the situation so some people jokingly said: flood lake water, the wave hit the wave, the wave of the wave, the wave of the wave. In order to count the wave structure of the Chinese stock market, Shenzhen Newland has spent tens of thousands of dollars to buy a set of top U.S. technical software, which has the function of automatic wave counting, after a period of time, we feel that the computer gives the number of wave structure is confusing wave theory is very controversial, but widely used in the country is that, first of all, wave theory in technical analysis is the best Secondly, wave theory is a better predictive tool in technical analysis. In predicting the market trend, wave theory is more sensitive and forward-looking, while other technical tools are sluggish and lagging. In my experience, if you can combine wave theory with the time cycle and technical indicators to study the general market trend, the accuracy will improve a lot of indicator inventor: Wilder (J & bull; W & bull; Wilder) Wilder worked as a mechanical engineer, skilled in mathematical analysis he published a book in 1978, "technical buying and selling system of new concepts", invented a series of technical indicators. Relative Strength Index (RSI), Parabola (PAR), Swing Index (SI), Divergence Analysis (DM), Momentum Indicator (MOM), Variance (VOL), etc. The above technical indicators, especially the Relative Strength Index, became very popular and were well received by the technicalists. He realized the importance of going with the trend and understood the true meaning of no trick is better than a trick, and in 1987 he released his new work "Adams Theory", subtitled "The most important thing is to make money" Adams Theory is divided into four parts: (1) a fairy tale to illustrate the importance of buying and selling with the trend. Mr. Precise is an expert in wave theory, and is well versed in the indicator market measurement system. He is famous for his accurate market measurement and has managed a fund that has made more than 10 times the profit in 4 years. So Mr. Accurate sold 8,000 stock index contracts, from a long position to a sell position in the following days, the market continued to fall, he chose the opportunity to close the position to turn the defeat into a victory Since then, Mr. Accurate no longer study what waves or indicators, at will, investment results have progressed day by day, life is written (2) to introduce a new and very simple market measurement tools he used the market itself as the basis for predicting future trends, to the opposite The principle of shadowing, with a pen and a transparent paper, can provide an automatic market measurement system (3) put forward the ten commandments of futures trading to control risk (4) introduce the idea of getting rich He was inspired by the science of success, and constantly motivated himself to strive for the set goals, believing that if there is a will, there is a way Weld concluded: If I go against the current, I will face strong enemies, and On the contrary, the water, follow the rhythm of the current walking, half the effort, whether life or speculative trading will be more wonderful and serene We believe that Weld generalization, from one extreme to the other extreme first, the world is not perfect stock market analysis tools (whether technical or basic), any analysis tools have certain flaws and misconceptions, but also have Therefore, Weld rashly denied the value of technical tools such as relative strength and weakness indicators is not desirable, it is incomprehensible, since Mr. Accurate in the past to measure the market accurately and successful speculation (4 years to earn 10 times), how could be because of a speculative error and give up the technical tools that have been effective? Second, for those who follow the trend, moving averages or trend lines can be important tools, so why do you need a new and innovative automatic market measurement system drawn on transparent paper? Since Wald believes in the freedom of God, there is no need to use transparent paper to draw to trap your mind? Third, in fact, most of the stockholders believe in Adams theory, up to buy up, down to bearish, why most of them still lose money? One of the important reasons is that they look at the wrong city, not to correct the error of Welds method, the lack of risk management awareness and action Fourth, Adams theory and the opposite of the theory of repulsion My view is that in the general medium and long-term market around the bottom and top of the big market, you can operate based on the opposite theory; in the general medium and long-term market in the middle section can be based on Adams theory of homeopathic operation but it is easier said than done.