The logic of how technical systems work

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The logic of efficient markets forexcashbackcalculator quite convincing when examined within the defined framework alone The logic of efficient markets implies the following assumptions: first, there cashback forex many rational investors in the market who carefully weigh Eastforexcashback from various sources East forex cashback trade on the basis of information cashbackforexbtc brings extraordinary returns; second, all information is available to all investors and at the same time, but this leads to the following assumptions The corollary of this is that no investor can profit from the new information, because no investor is ahead of other investors in obtaining information and trading on it, and this leads to a situation where the price has moved to a reasonable price level determined by the latest information before anyone can make a trade and profit from it. According to the theory of efficient markets, since historical prices are the most readily available information and are available to all investors at the same time, any information contained in historical prices can be instantly reflected in current prices. In fact, if a technical system or any other system really works, and everyone flocks to it, then the success of the system becomes precisely the reason for its failure, so it is its popularity that eliminates its profitability The contradiction of the efficient market theory However, the efficient market theory itself provides the strongest refutation of the above assertion in the marketplace There are many rational investors who carefully weigh information from a variety of sources and trade on the basis of information that leads to extraordinary returns. Many investors are not satisfied with a method that is truly profitable, and the large amount of historical trading data does not convince them that past extraordinary returns were not a fluke. Coupled with the imprecise science of measuring the causes of extraordinary returns, it is no wonder that skeptics are losing out on clearly profitable trading systems and moving further and further away from them. It is not only the efficient market theorists who fall into this trap, but also the fundamentalist investors who never bother to look at a chart (no matter how well the chartist next door does), the chartists who never bother to look at a companys profit and loss statement, and of course The investment behavior, after all, contains an element of faith. The composition of the market is such that faith is not easily shaken and skeptics are not easily convinced.  But why are there always reasons why trading rules based on historical prices work in the first place? Why can historical prices reveal certain aspects of future price processes?  For one reason or another, there are many investors who are not persuaded by opposing views and who do continue to trade using historical prices. This is not to say that all trading rules based on historical prices work. In fact, it is likely that no investor will ever discover a technical trading rule that actually works. They need to convince themselves that a profitable trading rule can be profitable, not just a flash in the pan, in order to stumble upon a rule that works. This may be the case: after they have traded with such a rule and made huge profits, they begin to wonder if they have discovered something that is true, but cannot convince others that it is true. They may not even believe that such success is not just a series of good luck hits and when their luck continues to flourish, they will continue to follow such a law to trade; and because of the complexity and profitability of such a law, they may be the only group of people using it for a period of time. The best way to interpret this is that the effect of insider information travels from the top executives and their acquaintances to the middle executives, then to the closely related analysts, and then to the market at large, and the volume of trades made on this information will vary. First, a small group will have first-hand knowledge of the information. Limited by its small size and the ban on insider trading, this small group will have less impact on the market than a subsequent group that trades after learning of the information. There is no evidence that the patterns generated by the flow of information can be easily identified, nor is there any guarantee that their identifiability is so obvious that it will lead to profits every time. In this way, the efficiency market argument against relying on historical prices for technical trading would be more convincing

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